Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ASU +136 CIN -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -1.1 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -1.4 (+12.6) | 143.4 (+6.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -0.6 (+13.4) | 141.0 (+9.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -0.2 (+13.8) | 140.4 (+9.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -1.2 (+15.2) | 145.5 (+4.5) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2025 | CIN 67 – 60 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.3 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#98) | 10.4 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#75) | 1.07 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#79) | 1.81 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#70) | 0.545 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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