Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | MERC -425 CHST +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +2 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | MERC -10.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MERC -9.2 (-7.2) | 128.5 (-8.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MERC -7.8 (-5.8) | 128.8 (-8.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -8.3 (-6.3) | 128.6 (-8.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -8.1 (-6.1) | 127.4 (-7.4) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | CHST 78 – 74 MERC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | MERC 90 – 68 CHST |
| Feb 7, 2025 | CHST 85 – 78 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-6 |
| Away | 5-14 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#273) | -14.7 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#310) | -3.83 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#309) | -4.64 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#294) | 0.369 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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