Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MERC -275 CHST +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +22 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MERC -8.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -7.1 (+14.9) | 142.1 (+15.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MERC -6.7 (+15.3) | 141.2 (+16.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MERC -7.6 (+14.4) | 139.5 (+18.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -7.0 (+15.0) | 140.6 (+17.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | CHST 78 – 74 MERC |
| Jan 25, 2026 | MERC 61 – 59 CHST |
| Feb 7, 2025 | CHST 85 – 78 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 4-12 |
| Home | 11-2 | 3-7 |
| Away | 4-14 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W2 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -12.2 (#340) | -17.4 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#308) | -2.68 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#319) | -3.30 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#301) | 0.413 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 26.2 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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