Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UTU -270 SUU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +11 | 193 | Won |
| Massey | UTU -9.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+40.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -8.1 (+2.9) | 146.0 (+47.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTU -7.4 (+3.6) | 147.3 (+45.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -7.7 (+3.3) | 144.8 (+48.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -7.6 (+3.4) | 144.4 (+48.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SUU 81 – 67 UTU |
| Dec 30, 2025 | UTU 80 – 66 SUU |
| Mar 11, 2025 | UTU 72 – 65 SUU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | SUU 82 – 75 UTU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | SUU 76 – 74 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 81.3 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#210) | -9.5 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#196) | -1.14 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#185) | -1.46 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#191) | 0.421 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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