Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | HAMP +142 UNCW -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAMP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +8 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -4.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -4.7 (-3.3) | 133.9 (+8.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -4.1 (-3.9) | 132.6 (+9.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -3.8 (-4.2) | 133.0 (+9.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -4.2 (-3.8) | 133.1 (+8.9) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | UNCW 49 – 45 HAMP |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UNCW 79 – 65 HAMP |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HAMP 83 – 70 UNCW |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UNCW 83 – 62 HAMP |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNCW 95 – 65 HAMP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAMP | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-2 | 15-4 |
| Away | 2-12 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#240) | 2.8 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#245) | 1.12 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#262) | 1.19 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#242) | 0.549 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAMP | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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