Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | HAMP +220 UNCW -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAMP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAMP +13 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -4.1 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -2.4 (+15.4) | 140.2 (+12.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -4.5 (+17.5) | 138.9 (+14.1) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -1.5 (+14.5) | 141.2 (+11.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -1.9 (+14.9) | 142.3 (+10.7) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | UNCW 75 – 67 HAMP |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UNCW 49 – 45 HAMP |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UNCW 79 – 65 HAMP |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UNCW 83 – 62 HAMP |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNCW 95 – 65 HAMP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAMP | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-4 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#241) | 2.7 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#224) | 0.83 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#229) | 0.79 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#192) | 0.546 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAMP | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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