Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -122 CHSO +102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +2 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | CHSO -1.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CHSO -0.1 (+2.1) | 153.8 (+6.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CHSO -0.0 (+2.0) | 153.2 (+6.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CHSO -0.9 (+2.9) | 149.6 (+10.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CHSO -0.7 (+2.7) | 151.6 (+8.4) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | LONG 107 – 96 CHSO |
| Feb 1, 2025 | CHSO 89 – 85 LONG |
| Jan 5, 2025 | LONG 83 – 78 CHSO |
| Feb 3, 2024 | CHSO 83 – 77 LONG |
| Jan 6, 2024 | LONG 77 – 56 CHSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 81.0 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#275) | -2.6 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#301) | -1.04 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#283) | -1.33 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#320) | 0.453 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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