Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | L-MD -135 BUCK +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +5 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -3.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -1.3 (+3.7) | 140.7 (-11.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -1.5 (+3.5) | 141.2 (-12.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -1.6 (+3.4) | 143.2 (-14.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -1.9 (+3.1) | 141.0 (-12.0) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | BUCK 70 – 67 L-MD |
| Mar 7, 2025 | BUCK 76 – 72 L-MD |
| Feb 27, 2025 | BUCK 70 – 67 L-MD |
| Jan 30, 2025 | BUCK 79 – 67 L-MD |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BUCK 68 – 46 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#328) | -12.1 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.78 (#350) | -1.98 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.38 (#347) | -2.41 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.369 (#354) | 0.414 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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