Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA -192 CHST +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +21 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | CHST -0.7 (+21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -1.8 (+19.2) | 139.8 (+1.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -0.9 (+20.1) | 138.9 (+2.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -1.0 (+20.0) | 137.8 (+3.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CHST -0.4 (+21.4) | 139.5 (+1.5) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2026 | CHST 80 – 75 SFPA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | SFPA 80 – 71 CHST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SFPA 81 – 69 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-8 | 5-6 |
| Away | 2-14 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.1 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -17.7 (#358) | -13.7 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#345) | -3.76 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.76 (#353) | -4.47 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#339) | 0.377 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.2% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 61.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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