Betting Lines
| Spread | CHST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | CHST -162 SFPA +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHST +5 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | CHST -5.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CHST -3.7 (+1.3) | 141.9 (+13.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | CHST -2.7 (+2.3) | 142.0 (+13.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | CHST -3.7 (+1.3) | 143.0 (+12.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CHST -3.3 (+1.7) | 143.8 (+11.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | SFPA 81 – 60 CHST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | SFPA 80 – 71 CHST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SFPA 81 – 69 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHST | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-6 | 5-8 |
| Away | 2-19 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 83.1 |
| Massey | -13.9 (#348) | -16.5 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.92 (#354) | -2.68 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.69 (#354) | -3.72 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#352) | 0.394 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHST | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 59.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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