Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | GW -550 RICH +410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +16 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | GW -9.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -9.7 (+6.3) | 152.7 (+1.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -8.3 (+7.7) | 151.3 (+2.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -8.0 (+8.0) | 151.8 (+2.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -8.5 (+7.5) | 154.0 (+0.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | GW 99 – 85 RICH |
| Jan 30, 2025 | GW 75 – 66 RICH |
| Dec 31, 2024 | RICH 66 – 61 GW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | RICH 90 – 74 GW |
| Jan 25, 2024 | RICH 82 – 74 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#61) | 3.8 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#112) | 0.13 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#100) | 0.64 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#93) | 0.504 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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