Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | GW -390 RICH +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | GW -10.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -8.7 (+0.3) | 138.5 (+2.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -8.5 (+0.5) | 139.1 (+1.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -7.8 (+1.2) | 135.5 (+5.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -8.3 (+0.7) | 136.2 (+4.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | GW 85 – 69 RICH |
| Dec 31, 2025 | GW 99 – 85 RICH |
| Dec 31, 2024 | RICH 66 – 61 GW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | RICH 90 – 74 GW |
| Jan 25, 2024 | RICH 82 – 74 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-4 | 6-9 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#132) | -4.5 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#147) | -1.06 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#139) | -1.21 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#157) | 0.475 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 18.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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