Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -205 OU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +1 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -3.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -4.1 (-3.1) | 148.0 (+27.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -4.4 (-3.4) | 146.1 (+28.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -4.5 (-3.5) | 147.4 (+27.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -4.5 (-3.5) | 149.5 (+25.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | OU 80 – 64 MIZ |
| Mar 6, 2025 | OU 96 – 84 MIZ |
| Feb 13, 2025 | MIZ 82 – 58 OU |
| Mar 20, 2021 | OU 72 – 68 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 82.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#65) | 9.1 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#52) | 1.24 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#50) | 1.80 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#86) | 0.509 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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