Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | OU -120 MIZ +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | OU -1.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -0.8 (+3.2) | 142.6 (-2.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -1.9 (+2.1) | 144.6 (-4.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -1.2 (+2.8) | 142.3 (-2.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -2.4 (+1.6) | 144.2 (-4.2) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | OU 80 – 64 MIZ |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MIZ 88 – 87 OU |
| Mar 6, 2025 | OU 96 – 84 MIZ |
| Feb 13, 2025 | MIZ 82 – 58 OU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-11 | 16-10 |
| Conference | 9-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#34) | 10.5 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#26) | 2.23 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#38) | 2.60 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#43) | 0.595 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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