Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | OU +165 MIZ -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +12 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -3.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -1.2 (+13.2) | 159.5 (+20.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -1.2 (+13.2) | 161.5 (+18.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -1.2 (+13.2) | 159.7 (+20.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -1.7 (+13.7) | 158.3 (+21.7) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | OU 80 – 64 MIZ |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MIZ 88 – 87 OU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | MIZ 82 – 58 OU |
| Mar 20, 2021 | OU 72 – 68 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 18-2 |
| Away | 2-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#54) | 18.0 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#35) | 3.26 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#31) | 4.15 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#75) | 0.599 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 34.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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