Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UNI -110 MUR -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -0.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -0.5 (+5.5) | 139.3 (+17.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -0.3 (+5.3) | 138.9 (+18.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -0.6 (+4.4) | 136.1 (+20.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -0.6 (+4.4) | 135.0 (+22.0) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | UNI 89 – 60 MUR |
| Feb 18, 2025 | UNI 74 – 67 MUR |
| Jan 9, 2025 | MUR 71 – 68 UNI |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MUR 71 – 43 UNI |
| Jan 14, 2024 | UNI 70 – 60 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.5 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#104) | 7.6 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#138) | 1.44 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#145) | 1.61 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#112) | 0.563 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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