Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MUR -192 UNI +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +29 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -4.7 (-33.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -4.5 (-33.5) | 138.8 (+10.2) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -4.2 (-33.2) | 140.4 (+8.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -4.6 (-33.6) | 137.7 (+11.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -4.8 (-33.8) | 137.5 (+11.5) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | UNI 81 – 76 MUR |
| Feb 18, 2025 | UNI 74 – 67 MUR |
| Jan 9, 2025 | MUR 71 – 68 UNI |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MUR 71 – 43 UNI |
| Jan 14, 2024 | UNI 70 – 60 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 62.5 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#91) | 5.0 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#89) | 0.46 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#93) | 0.45 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#73) | 0.544 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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