Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | COLO -180 UCF +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +9 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -0.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.8 (+16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -0.1 (-8.9) | 152.3 (+28.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -0.3 (-9.3) | 151.4 (+29.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -0.1 (-9.1) | 151.0 (+30.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -1.1 (-7.9) | 154.5 (+26.5) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2025 | COLO 76 – 63 UCF |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UCF 75 – 74 COLO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#81) | 11.5 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#77) | 2.94 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#68) | 3.56 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#90) | 0.629 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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