Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -270 COLO +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -2.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.5 (-1.5) | 147.3 (+1.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -3.1 (-2.1) | 146.6 (+2.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -1.8 (-0.8) | 146.2 (+2.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -1.6 (-0.6) | 147.5 (+1.5) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | UCF 95 – 86 COLO |
| Feb 15, 2025 | COLO 76 – 63 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 14-21 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 3-17 |
| Home | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Away | 2-8 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#107) | 5.8 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#48) | 2.10 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#53) | 2.42 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#31) | 0.537 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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