Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | COLO -125 UCF +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +13 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -0.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -0.8 (+12.2) | 150.6 (-11.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -1.7 (+11.3) | 146.6 (-7.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -1.2 (+11.8) | 147.9 (-8.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -1.0 (+12.0) | 152.2 (-13.2) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | UCF 95 – 86 COLO |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UCF 75 – 74 COLO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-21 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Away | 0-10 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 80.4 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#96) | 7.5 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#145) | 1.56 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#140) | 1.84 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#221) | 0.557 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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