Anger is an energy. "Rise" - Public Image Ltd.
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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84–42 on winners spread MAE 8.7 126 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
VCU @ Saint Joseph's +0.7 141.4 51% 78–69 ✗
Providence @ Villanova +8.4 143.5 80% 73–75 ✓
Robert Morris @ Green Bay -4.2 145.3 30% 89–67 ✓
Indiana @ Ohio State +8.0 149.4 78% 77–76 ✗
DePaul @ Georgetown +7.0 139.2 79% 73–68 ✗
Youngstown State @ Milwaukee +4.9 138.9 71% 64–79 ✓
Iowa @ UCLA +5.1 150.9 66% 70–94 ✓
Air Force @ Fresno State +2.6 139.2 60% 65–74 ✓
Boise State @ New Mexico +3.1 150.4 64% 65–84 ✓
Alabama @ Kentucky +3.8 180.8 64% 102–97 ✗
Houston @ UCF -11.6 136.1 19% 69–68 ✓
Creighton @ UConn +7.4 147.1 77% 68–63 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Florida State +9.9 145.7 84% 78–91 ✓
Virginia @ Louisville +14.8 133.7 89% 67–81 ✓
Clemson @ Pittsburgh +4.9 142.2 68% 78–75 ✗
Boston University @ Army +1.9 133.3 62% 62–68 ✓
George Washington @ George Mason +7.6 131.4 78% 77–80 ✓
Auburn @ Georgia -5.8 144.8 23% 70–68 ✓
Kansas State @ Kansas +16.7 137.4 90% 74–84 ✓
American University @ Holy Cross +1.1 137.0 56% 74–65 ✗
Colgate @ Lafayette +0.1 131.9 51% 90–67 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Wagner +2.5 123.7 59% 69–65 ✗
Maine @ UMBC -0.2 146.3 50% 87–62 ✓
Oakland @ Detroit Mercy -5.7 132.4 27% 65–59 ✓
VMI @ The Citadel -3.2 131.8 31% 75–70 ✓
Buffalo @ Western Michigan +7.1 147.9 76% 85–76 ✗
Xavier @ Marquette +9.9 148.3 83% 59–57 ✗
Winthrop @ UNC Asheville +1.8 163.2 61% 84–93 ✓
Radford @ Charleston Southern -3.6 142.8 33% 54–58 ✗
Niagara @ Manhattan +3.1 145.6 65% 65–72 ✓
Arizona State @ Cincinnati +4.9 129.9 69% 60–67 ✓
Arizona @ Texas Tech +3.1 149.8 60% 54–70 ✓
SMU @ Miami -9.1 158.5 22% 117–74 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech -3.1 136.1 34% 72–63 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne -2.1 132.7 37% 57–75 ✗
Davidson @ Rhode Island +4.8 143.5 70% 90–92 ✓
Belmont @ Evansville -5.3 141.1 27% 85–82 ✓
Saint Francis @ Long Island University +4.2 133.4 70% 51–64 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lehigh +2.4 138.8 62% 76–60 ✗
Yale @ Columbia -4.2 152.5 35% 92–88 ✓
Harvard @ Brown +3.4 137.8 64% 80–67 ✗
Cornell @ Pennsylvania -8.2 150.9 19% 86–76 ✓
Princeton @ Dartmouth -3.8 147.4 30% 81–80 ✓
UAlbany @ Binghamton +0.6 144.8 52% 70–65 ✗
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky +0.6 138.3 53% 78–70 ✗
Elon @ Delaware -0.9 147.1 45% 77–79 ✗
Monmouth @ Campbell +2.0 134.5 62% 58–81 ✓
Stony Brook @ Towson +10.4 134.0 86% 49–53 ✓
North Alabama @ North Florida -2.4 157.5 42% 90–84 ✓
Queens University @ Florida Gulf Coast +4.3 146.3 69% 47–60 ✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota -0.6 142.4 49% 72–76 ✗
Toledo @ Ball State +1.7 149.0 56% 93–75 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Bowling Green +3.9 148.3 68% 68–62 ✗
Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois -10.3 138.1 16% 71–66 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Sacred Heart +0.9 131.2 54% 66–61 ✗
Canisius @ Fairfield +7.6 141.3 79% 78–67 ✗
UTEP @ Florida International -1.9 140.2 36% 81–73 ✓
Stanford @ North Carolina +10.6 152.7 86% 72–71 ✗
Le Moyne @ Chicago State -2.4 140.8 39% 72–88 ✗
Saint Louis @ Richmond -1.9 137.0 41% 63–59 ✓
Purdue @ Oregon +1.5 142.2 56% 65–58 ✗
Wisconsin @ USC -1.9 148.2 41% 84–69 ✓
Colorado @ Oklahoma State +0.6 140.1 55% 73–83 ✓
Tulsa @ South Florida +7.8 147.3 82% 56–63 ✓
New Hampshire @ NJIT +1.0 128.5 56% 59–64 ✓
Louisiana @ UL Monroe +0.2 139.8 46% 65–60 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Jacksonville +11.7 138.8 87% 62–72 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota -4.3 164.8 33% 103–77 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Western Carolina -11.9 135.7 14% 83–55 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Kent State +1.6 139.0 60% 70–61 ✗
Siena @ Merrimack +3.9 133.0 69% 58–64 ✓
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt -3.4 136.2 33% 75–76 ✗
Georgia State @ Arkansas State +13.7 149.0 88% 59–85 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion +0.9 144.4 55% 67–63 ✗
Lindenwood @ Morehead State +4.3 133.5 70% 65–82 ✓
New Orleans @ East Texas A&M +2.5 141.3 62% 82–73 ✗
Marshall @ Coastal Carolina -2.6 138.1 40% 77–64 ✓
Texas @ Florida +11.5 151.4 85% 60–84 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Gardner-Webb +9.2 155.4 83% 68–97 ✓
North Texas @ UTSA -8.1 138.4 19% 72–57 ✓
Notre Dame @ Syracuse -1.2 147.4 48% 69–77 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Dayton +10.2 142.3 85% 81–83 ✓
UIC @ Valparaiso +0.2 151.4 51% 81–74 ✗
Bradley @ Murray State -1.8 141.7 43% 74–61 ✓
Colorado State @ Wyoming -3.9 132.4 37% 79–63 ✓
West Georgia @ Stetson +0.4 144.5 49% 78–82 ✓
Navy @ Bucknell +5.1 139.9 72% 69–73 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Fairleigh Dickinson -3.7 136.1 31% 71–60 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Bryant +3.9 154.9 65% 62–85 ✓
App State @ James Madison +1.5 131.9 60% 58–50 ✗
Troy @ South Alabama +3.7 131.0 71% 63–64 ✓
UC Davis @ UC Santa Barbara +7.2 131.9 78% 64–60 ✗
South Carolina @ Oklahoma +7.2 141.0 76% 62–82 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah Valley +10.1 138.8 86% 80–96 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Mount St. Mary's +1.5 136.2 59% 91–57 ✗
Little Rock @ Tennessee Tech -0.0 132.5 50% 77–71 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Nicholls +5.2 133.2 72% 61–73 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Houston Christian -2.1 139.1 41% 57–66 ✗
Western Illinois @ Southern Indiana +3.3 135.4 62% 66–78 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ UT Martin +0.2 133.5 49% 82–85 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee State +4.7 142.8 68% 65–84 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State +0.9 135.7 55% 65–64 ✗
Iowa State @ West Virginia -3.0 135.5 33% 57–64 ✗
Missouri State @ Illinois State +9.2 139.4 84% 68–74 ✓
Lamar @ McNeese +13.4 135.1 88% 64–75 ✓
Southern Miss @ Texas State +8.6 148.4 82% 82–85 ✓
Northeastern @ Charleston +5.9 144.3 77% 85–87 ✓
Chattanooga @ Furman +4.9 146.8 73% 75–71 ✗
Sam Houston @ Jacksonville State +4.5 149.7 69% 62–70 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Kennesaw State +0.5 142.2 54% 76–78 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State +16.0 158.9 89% 70–84 ✓
Jackson State @ Prairie View A&M -0.3 148.7 48% 79–70 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Bethune-Cookman +19.6 131.4 90% 58–83 ✓
Alabama State @ Alabama A&M -7.2 150.8 25% 69–65 ✓
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State +3.2 143.3 66% 81–84 ✓
California @ NC State +5.2 140.7 72% 65–62 ✗
Drake @ Indiana State -8.2 140.3 22% 71–53 ✓
San José State @ Nevada +10.8 138.7 86% 64–75 ✓
Grambling @ Southern +9.7 133.6 84% 60–67 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Incarnate Word -3.1 146.1 38% 69–63 ✓
Arkansas @ Missouri +6.7 146.7 78% 65–83 ✓
Portland @ Washington State +15.6 153.8 89% 70–92 ✓
Mercer @ Wofford +8.5 147.7 80% 49–69 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Samford +6.7 150.4 78% 65–60 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Florida A&M +9.6 155.1 84% 76–86 ✓
Alcorn State @ Texas Southern +3.4 136.7 64% 57–66 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.