I know you're dissatisfied with your position and your place. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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83–40 on winners spread MAE 8.2 123 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Princeton @ Brown -1.4 147.8 47% 69–50 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Yale +4.8 144.0 71% 72–81 ✓
Cornell @ Dartmouth -1.1 146.2 43% 59–71 ✗
Columbia @ Harvard +12.2 144.8 87% 54–62 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy +0.6 140.5 54% 52–60 ✓
Richmond @ VCU +4.4 135.3 68% 57–77 ✓
Marist @ Siena -0.2 136.0 50% 62–53 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Fairfield +1.1 132.3 53% 70–59 ✗
Rider @ Monmouth +9.1 136.9 84% 58–60 ✓
Ohio @ Kent State +0.8 138.6 53% 52–75 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay -5.7 133.9 25% 74–55 ✓
Cleveland State @ Milwaukee -6.7 143.8 24% 78–61 ✓
Wright State @ Oakland +5.2 147.3 73% 78–74 ✗
Maryland @ Nebraska -2.2 150.1 41% 90–74 ✓
Missouri @ Mississippi State +11.2 136.3 85% 49–68 ✓
TCU @ Baylor +10.5 140.2 86% 62–72 ✓
Illinois @ Michigan State +2.6 140.4 60% 79–74 ✗
Xavier @ UConn +5.5 143.9 72% 61–72 ✓
Tulsa @ South Florida -1.2 129.1 47% 65–57 ✓
Holy Cross @ Navy +13.9 130.3 88% 55–50 ✗
Boston College @ Syracuse +10.5 149.6 83% 56–76 ✓
UMBC @ Vermont +13.9 146.1 88% 59–86 ✓
La Salle @ Massachusetts +5.5 153.5 73% 74–80 ✓
Wofford @ Furman +6.0 142.2 74% 69–70 ✓
Texas Tech @ Texas +1.0 130.9 55% 61–55 ✗
Alabama @ Kentucky +9.6 161.5 82% 81–90 ✓
UTEP @ Southern Miss -8.0 139.2 18% 84–70 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Wagner +14.5 136.8 89% 68–78 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Bryant +11.4 154.5 87% 93–105 ✓
Notre Dame @ Wake Forest +6.5 144.5 73% 74–79 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Indiana State +0.1 130.3 49% 76–72 ✗
Dayton @ Saint Joseph's -5.5 135.7 26% 74–62 ✓
East Tennessee State @ The Citadel +0.2 153.5 50% 77–67 ✗
Niagara @ Canisius -0.1 139.2 50% 65–54 ✓
Ole Miss @ Georgia -2.9 146.6 34% 85–68 ✓
Boston University @ Colgate +5.9 147.1 75% 53–72 ✓
Auburn @ Florida -3.5 142.9 31% 62–63 ✗
Morgan State @ Howard +8.3 149.4 81% 66–68 ✓
Army @ American University -2.4 136.3 37% 67–83 ✗
High Point @ Radford +0.6 131.0 52% 64–66 ✓
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State +3.4 137.0 64% 79–82 ✓
Oklahoma @ Iowa State +2.8 128.4 60% 54–75 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Youngstown State +14.8 133.0 89% 61–74 ✓
Valparaiso @ Evansville -3.0 133.8 40% 72–56 ✓
Illinois State @ Bradley +10.1 144.3 83% 64–72 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota -10.7 159.2 16% 87–73 ✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota State +5.4 141.1 74% 85–71 ✗
Mercer @ Western Carolina -2.9 144.5 38% 65–69 ✗
Northeastern @ Hofstra +13.6 145.5 88% 73–76 ✓
Iowa @ Ohio State +4.4 157.6 69% 75–62 ✗
Tarleton State @ Chicago State -7.2 132.7 23% 79–60 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack +5.2 134.2 72% 79–80 ✓
Clemson @ Louisville +0.5 143.8 52% 61–70 ✓
Arkansas State @ UT Arlington +1.3 139.5 56% 58–49 ✗
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern -0.4 133.6 46% 58–49 ✓
St. Thomas @ South Dakota State +16.9 154.4 90% 60–79 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Samford +1.2 138.8 57% 49–55 ✓
Akron @ Eastern Michigan -3.7 139.1 34% 67–48 ✓
Saint Louis @ Davidson +3.1 147.0 64% 58–79 ✓
LSU @ South Carolina -5.2 139.9 33% 75–77 ✗
Tennessee @ Arkansas +0.3 145.2 50% 48–58 ✓
Air Force @ Wyoming +15.4 133.2 89% 67–75 ✓
Lafayette @ Bucknell +0.3 143.9 47% 89–92 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +1.8 128.9 56% 62–60 ✗
Hawai'i @ UC Irvine +5.0 127.9 72% 52–77 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State +11.1 146.2 87% 92–84 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee State +10.1 131.4 86% 49–63 ✓
Jackson State @ Alcorn State +2.0 129.7 60% 60–61 ✓
North Texas @ UAB +5.6 132.6 68% 58–57 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Florida Atlantic +3.4 143.9 65% 87–79 ✗
Montana State @ Southern Utah +1.3 150.5 54% 76–71 ✗
Houston Christian @ Nicholls +11.5 148.4 87% 70–84 ✓
California Baptist @ Seattle U +8.7 144.1 82% 64–67 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Lamar -13.5 141.6 13% 70–56 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Saint Francis +0.8 136.7 50% 80–72 ✗
Long Island University @ Mount St. Mary's +0.2 140.6 56% 66–61 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Presbyterian -2.5 130.1 37% 76–68 ✓
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech +5.8 145.1 72% 65–57 ✗
New Hampshire @ UAlbany +1.0 128.9 58% 65–70 ✓
Troy @ Coastal Carolina +2.3 135.7 61% 63–73 ✓
VMI @ Chattanooga +10.3 147.6 84% 80–75 ✗
Drexel @ Elon -4.1 141.1 32% 71–60 ✓
Delaware @ William & Mary -9.5 142.5 17% 73–69 ✓
Towson @ Charleston -2.6 144.2 36% 80–77 ✓
Western Michigan @ Buffalo +16.2 148.5 90% 73–87 ✓
Northwestern @ Minnesota -1.0 137.0 48% 60–77 ✗
Delaware State @ North Carolina Central +13.4 136.9 87% 79–84 ✓
Alabama State @ Florida A&M +2.6 135.3 62% 83–86 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ South Carolina State +0.6 135.5 50% 63–70 ✓
Murray State @ UT Martin -14.3 140.2 14% 62–60 ✓
Winthrop @ UNC Asheville +2.1 143.3 55% 84–79 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Campbell +5.5 133.0 71% 63–64 ✓
Lipscomb @ North Alabama +1.0 143.6 53% 75–72 ✗
South Alabama @ App State -0.4 129.2 48% 51–69 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois +0.3 142.7 50% 78–75 ✗
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -4.4 140.9 29% 89–59 ✓
Georgetown @ Villanova +17.9 149.2 91% 66–74 ✓
Texas Southern @ Mississippi Valley State -13.5 144.3 13% 79–59 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Incarnate Word -4.6 149.7 27% 84–92 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Belmont +16.8 147.4 90% 62–73 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Austin Peay +0.8 141.3 53% 73–69 ✗
McNeese @ LSU New Orleans +6.0 151.6 74% 75–88 ✓
Virginia @ Miami +4.2 131.2 67% 74–71 ✗
Binghamton @ UMass Lowell +4.3 137.8 67% 78–64 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Florida +1.0 152.0 51% 64–70 ✓
Little Rock @ Texas State +11.6 140.1 88% 50–68 ✓
Western Illinois @ South Dakota +4.0 154.3 69% 65–78 ✓
Ball State @ Bowling Green +2.6 165.6 65% 91–82 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Charleston Southern -5.1 143.9 26% 78–73 ✓
Hartford @ Stony Brook +5.3 151.0 71% 82–88 ✓
Florida State @ Duke +13.1 146.4 88% 70–88 ✓
Utah @ California +2.0 138.0 60% 60–58 ✗
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +8.5 155.4 81% 76–83 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Brown +1.6 141.9 58% 89–88 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville +5.9 131.5 74% 56–59 ✓
Drake @ Loyola Chicago +9.1 139.3 82% 83–76 ✗
Rhode Island @ George Washington -2.1 135.7 39% 61–72 ✗
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure +12.7 138.5 88% 55–81 ✓
Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt +2.7 138.7 63% 67–72 ✓
Utah State @ Boise State +6.1 140.4 75% 57–68 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -3.9 144.8 30% 92–84 ✓
Grambling @ Southern +9.6 141.4 85% 61–57 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Idaho -3.6 156.6 30% 80–83 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.