I'm just like a turtle crawling out of my shell. "Boombastic" - Shaggy
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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45–20 on winners spread MAE 9.6 65 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Austin Peay @ Murray State +16.4 135.1 90% 56–91 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Akron +10.4 131.3 86% 66–63 ✗
East Carolina @ South Florida +0.3 130.1 50% 65–57 ✗
Wichita State @ Cincinnati +2.5 135.1 61% 76–85 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Florida International -3.1 145.8 32% 71–65 ✓
Old Dominion @ Marshall +1.1 146.3 55% 63–67 ✓
North Texas @ Florida Atlantic -0.8 130.8 39% 54–51 ✓
Long Island University @ Saint Francis -1.5 147.5 44% 81–63 ✓
Wagner @ Sacred Heart -10.4 144.0 16% 76–67 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Mount St. Mary's +5.3 130.2 73% 64–55 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Merrimack +7.2 132.1 78% 44–64 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Bryant +10.6 148.3 86% 61–75 ✓
UIC @ Youngstown State +4.7 141.9 70% 79–88 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Robert Morris +12.4 130.9 87% 66–56 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State +5.1 133.6 73% 63–79 ✓
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina +0.1 135.8 49% 71–68 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Chattanooga +10.5 132.0 85% 73–70 ✗
Drexel @ William & Mary -8.5 142.5 18% 72–57 ✓
Delaware @ Elon -4.1 143.0 31% 71–62 ✓
James Madison @ Charleston +5.8 154.3 74% 71–63 ✗
Michigan @ Iowa +6.2 153.4 73% 84–79 ✗
Oregon State @ Arizona +22.0 155.7 91% 69–83 ✓
UTEP @ Louisiana Tech +9.1 144.1 79% 63–60 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Sam Houston +0.4 139.7 53% 71–75 ✓
Louisiana @ UL Monroe -1.4 141.8 47% 78–77 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Belmont +21.4 140.3 91% 57–81 ✓
UTSA @ Southern Miss +2.1 139.4 56% 98–79 ✗
Rice @ UAB +13.6 154.0 88% 68–92 ✓
Charlotte @ Western Kentucky +8.2 148.0 78% 67–77 ✓
McNeese @ Nicholls +8.2 148.9 81% 73–82 ✓
Little Rock @ UT Arlington +8.7 138.5 82% 70–85 ✓
Arkansas State @ Texas State +4.7 134.8 71% 67–84 ✓
Denver @ Omaha -3.4 150.0 34% 69–72 ✗
Kansas City @ North Dakota -6.1 145.6 24% 80–65 ✓
St. Thomas @ South Dakota +7.2 147.8 79% 60–81 ✓
Western Illinois @ South Dakota State +13.9 158.7 88% 66–91 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State +1.2 153.5 57% 59–77 ✓
VMI @ Samford +1.4 157.6 58% 99–100 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech +3.2 153.9 65% 94–98 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State +2.1 138.2 60% 65–81 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +4.0 154.2 66% 83–74 ✗
Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word +0.2 147.1 47% 88–64 ✗
UCF @ Houston +14.3 136.8 87% 52–70 ✓
Colorado State @ New Mexico -4.6 153.4 27% 83–68 ✓
Oregon @ Arizona State -2.0 139.2 42% 57–81 ✗
Sacramento State @ Weber State +11.5 143.2 87% 50–65 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho State -7.6 147.8 22% 58–61 ✗
Montana @ Idaho -4.3 147.4 29% 76–82 ✗
Montana State @ Eastern Washington -0.8 145.7 45% 86–88 ✗
Longwood @ High Point -1.4 138.2 41% 78–71 ✓
Colorado @ California -0.2 133.4 50% 70–62 ✓
San Francisco @ Saint Mary's +2.5 132.8 63% 64–69 ✓
Creighton @ DePaul +1.6 139.1 59% 71–59 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside +6.2 130.1 72% 69–79 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC San Diego -1.7 139.8 43% 65–53 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Northridge -5.6 144.1 25% 72–59 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Santa Barbara +4.5 135.6 69% 67–58 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Portland State +4.0 142.0 67% 67–68 ✓
San Diego @ Portland +1.5 140.3 62% 60–92 ✓
Santa Clara @ Loyola Marymount -5.2 152.3 30% 84–80 ✓
Washington State @ UCLA +8.9 138.0 80% 56–76 ✓
Utah @ Stanford +6.2 143.7 75% 60–56 ✗
Washington @ USC +11.2 143.0 87% 69–79 ✓
Nevada @ San José State -5.1 143.9 28% 90–60 ✓
Butler @ St. John's +7.4 142.0 76% 57–91 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.