Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +1 | 199 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -0.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (+40.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -1.3 (-0.3) | 157.9 (+41.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -1.4 (-0.4) | 157.6 (+41.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -0.9 (+0.1) | 159.2 (+39.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -0.9 (+0.1) | 159.0 (+40.0) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | SAM 80 – 61 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SAM 78 – 58 VMI |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SAM 95 – 83 VMI |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SAM 81 – 68 VMI |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SAM 102 – 63 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#215) | 0.5 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#136) | 0.23 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#152) | 0.41 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#137) | 0.521 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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