Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -3.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -3.6 (+1.4) | 131.4 (+1.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -2.5 (+2.5) | 132.8 (+0.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -3.5 (+1.5) | 133.7 (-0.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -3.2 (+1.8) | 133.7 (-0.7) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SMC 79 – 54 SF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SMC 82 – 68 SF |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SF 65 – 64 SMC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SMC 71 – 51 SF |
| Feb 21, 2024 | SMC 70 – 66 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 10-6 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.3 | 67.5 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#24) | 11.9 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#29) | 2.08 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#33) | 3.06 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#8) | 0.599 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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