Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +8 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -0.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -0.1 (-8.1) | 130.1 (-8.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -0.3 (-8.3) | 130.1 (-8.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -0.3 (-8.3) | 131.6 (-9.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -0.3 (-8.3) | 132.3 (-10.3) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | USF 82 – 71 ECU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ECU 64 – 55 USF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | USF 75 – 69 ECU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | USF 81 – 59 ECU |
| Feb 1, 2024 | USF 71 – 60 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 6-11 |
| Home | 6-10 | 12-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#231) | -0.9 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#239) | 0.19 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#227) | 0.07 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#251) | 0.486 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 24.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.6% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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