Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +24 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -3.7 (+27.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -2.7 (+26.7) | 140.4 (-2.4) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -2.0 (+26.0) | 139.2 (-1.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -1.8 (+25.8) | 139.8 (-1.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -2.6 (+26.6) | 140.9 (-2.9) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 26, 2024 | ORE 80 – 61 ASU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | ORE 75 – 70 ASU |
| Jan 13, 2023 | ASU 90 – 73 ORE |
| Dec 6, 2021 | ASU 69 – 67 ORE |
| Mar 11, 2021 | ORE 91 – 73 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#131) | 8.9 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#117) | 1.70 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#136) | 2.11 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#119) | 0.575 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 14.2% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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