Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ORE -450 ASU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +18 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -8.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -6.4 (+11.6) | 142.9 (+21.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -7.6 (+10.4) | 147.1 (+16.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -7.5 (+10.5) | 145.8 (+18.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -7.4 (+10.6) | 147.7 (+16.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 26, 2024 | ORE 80 – 61 ASU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | ORE 75 – 70 ASU |
| Jan 13, 2023 | ASU 90 – 73 ORE |
| Feb 18, 2022 | ASU 81 – 57 ORE |
| Dec 6, 2021 | ASU 69 – 67 ORE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-7 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-10 |
| Home | 11-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 7-2 | 2-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#34) | 3.6 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#23) | 0.70 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#28) | 0.94 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#26) | 0.514 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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