Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | SJSU +290 NEV -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +30 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -5.8 (-24.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -8.4 (-21.6) | 141.4 (+8.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -5.1 (-24.9) | 143.9 (+6.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -5.7 (-24.3) | 145.1 (+4.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -5.7 (-24.3) | 144.8 (+5.2) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SJSU 87 – 71 NEV |
| Jan 21, 2026 | NEV 87 – 54 SJSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NEV 73 – 58 SJSU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NEV 75 – 64 SJSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NEV 84 – 63 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-9 | 7-7 |
| Away | 1-13 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.5 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#283) | 1.6 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#240) | 0.77 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#244) | 0.99 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#257) | 0.533 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.9% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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