Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | USC -12.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -14.0 (-4.0) | 144.7 (+3.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -11.2 (-1.2) | 143.0 (+5.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -11.2 (-1.2) | 143.6 (+4.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -11.5 (-1.5) | 144.2 (+3.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | WASH 83 – 79 USC |
| Mar 5, 2026 | WASH 91 – 72 USC |
| Dec 6, 2025 | WASH 84 – 76 USC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | USC 92 – 61 WASH |
| Dec 7, 2024 | USC 85 – 61 WASH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#30) | 2.0 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#20) | 1.06 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#27) | 1.08 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#26) | 0.537 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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