Betting Lines
| Spread | WASH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | WASH -185 USC +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WASH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WASH +4 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | WASH -3.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WASH -2.5 (+1.5) | 149.4 (+12.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WASH -2.5 (+1.5) | 149.1 (+12.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WASH -2.3 (+1.7) | 146.0 (+16.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WASH -2.6 (+1.4) | 147.3 (+14.7) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | WASH 91 – 72 USC |
| Dec 6, 2025 | WASH 84 – 76 USC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | USC 92 – 61 WASH |
| Dec 7, 2024 | USC 85 – 61 WASH |
| Mar 13, 2024 | USC 80 – 74 WASH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WASH | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#50) | 7.8 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#78) | 1.76 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#69) | 2.05 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#124) | 0.552 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WASH | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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