Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | WASH +125 USC -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WASH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +6 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | WASH -2.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WASH -1.2 (-7.2) | 155.1 (-1.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WASH -1.4 (-7.4) | 154.4 (-0.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WASH -1.3 (-7.3) | 152.1 (+1.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WASH -1.7 (-7.7) | 152.9 (+1.1) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | WASH 83 – 79 USC |
| Mar 5, 2026 | WASH 91 – 72 USC |
| Dec 6, 2025 | WASH 84 – 76 USC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | USC 92 – 61 WASH |
| Dec 7, 2024 | USC 85 – 61 WASH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WASH | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#56) | 7.1 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#89) | 0.75 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#85) | 1.06 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#83) | 0.526 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WASH | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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