Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | USC -290 WASH +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +31 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | USC -7.9 (+23.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -6.4 (+24.6) | 149.2 (+3.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -7.4 (+23.6) | 151.1 (+1.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -7.0 (+24.0) | 151.7 (+1.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -6.7 (+24.3) | 152.9 (+0.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | WASH 83 – 79 USC |
| Mar 5, 2026 | WASH 91 – 72 USC |
| Dec 6, 2025 | WASH 84 – 76 USC |
| Dec 7, 2024 | USC 85 – 61 WASH |
| Mar 13, 2024 | USC 80 – 74 WASH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 4-16 |
| Home | 12-7 | 9-9 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#63) | 4.3 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#77) | 0.91 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#62) | 1.23 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#111) | 0.512 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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