Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +3 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -12.4 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -12.8 (-15.8) | 130.9 (-1.9) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -10.4 (-13.4) | 131.3 (-2.3) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -10.3 (-13.3) | 132.0 (-3.0) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -10.3 (-13.3) | 131.2 (-2.2) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | AKR 94 – 55 NIU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | AKR 73 – 63 NIU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | AKR 80 – 70 NIU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AKR 80 – 73 NIU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | AKR 73 – 51 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-3 | 3-8 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.9 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#161) | -9.4 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#157) | -1.27 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#154) | -1.60 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#143) | 0.443 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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