Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +16 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -5.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -6.2 (+9.8) | 132.9 (+9.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -5.1 (+10.9) | 133.6 (+8.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -5.0 (+11.0) | 133.3 (+8.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -5.3 (+10.7) | 133.6 (+8.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | GAST 66 – 64 GASO |
| Dec 19, 2025 | GASO 90 – 67 GAST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GAST 80 – 71 GASO |
| Mar 1, 2025 | GASO 76 – 75 GAST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GAST 82 – 78 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 8-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#197) | -3.9 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#187) | -0.35 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#165) | -0.73 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#213) | 0.469 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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