Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +19 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -2.1 (-21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+41.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -0.8 (-18.2) | 137.8 (+39.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -2.1 (-21.1) | 139.4 (+37.6) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USM -1.9 (-20.9) | 141.8 (+35.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -1.0 (-20.0) | 141.9 (+35.1) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2022 | USM 67 – 64 UTSA |
| Jan 7, 2022 | USM 74 – 73 UTSA |
| Jan 23, 2021 | UTSA 78 – 72 USM |
| Jan 23, 2021 | UTSA 70 – 64 USM |
Game Analysis
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