Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA -160 USM +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +3 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | UTSA -2.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -4.1 (-7.1) | 138.6 (-7.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -2.7 (-5.7) | 140.9 (-9.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -3.0 (-6.0) | 140.1 (-9.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -3.2 (-6.2) | 140.9 (-9.9) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2022 | UTSA 98 – 79 USM |
| Jan 7, 2022 | USM 74 – 73 UTSA |
| Jan 23, 2021 | UTSA 78 – 72 USM |
| Jan 23, 2021 | UTSA 70 – 64 USM |
Game Analysis
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