Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA -225 USM +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +6 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | USM -0.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -1.2 (+4.8) | 140.1 (+9.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -0.4 (+5.6) | 140.3 (+9.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -0.5 (+5.5) | 140.7 (+9.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -0.1 (+5.9) | 140.4 (+9.6) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2022 | USM 67 – 64 UTSA |
| Feb 18, 2022 | UTSA 98 – 79 USM |
| Jan 7, 2022 | USM 74 – 73 UTSA |
| Jan 23, 2021 | UTSA 70 – 64 USM |
Game Analysis
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