Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA -200 USM +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | UTSA -2.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -4.2 (-5.2) | 137.3 (+9.7) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -1.5 (-2.5) | 136.9 (+10.1) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -0.8 (-1.8) | 137.2 (+9.8) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -3.1 (-4.1) | 138.5 (+8.5) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2022 | USM 67 – 64 UTSA |
| Feb 18, 2022 | UTSA 98 – 79 USM |
| Jan 23, 2021 | UTSA 78 – 72 USM |
| Jan 23, 2021 | UTSA 70 – 64 USM |
Game Analysis
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