Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +15 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -6.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -6.0 (-9.0) | 150.6 (+0.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -4.6 (-10.4) | 153.4 (-2.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -4.6 (-10.4) | 153.1 (-2.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -5.1 (-9.9) | 153.0 (-2.0) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | CSU 82 – 74 UNM |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNM 80 – 70 CSU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNM 87 – 65 CSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | UNM 76 – 68 CSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UNM 74 – 61 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 25-6 |
| Conference | 5-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#139) | 10.6 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#144) | 2.90 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#135) | 3.10 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#139) | 0.622 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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