Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -410 CSU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +8 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -8.5 (-16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -9.0 (-17.0) | 145.8 (+10.2) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -9.6 (-17.6) | 144.5 (+11.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -9.6 (-17.6) | 145.6 (+10.4) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -8.4 (-16.4) | 147.1 (+8.9) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNM 80 – 70 CSU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNM 87 – 65 CSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | UNM 76 – 68 CSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UNM 74 – 61 CSU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | UNM 68 – 66 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 17-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#46) | 6.6 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#45) | 1.19 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#48) | 1.60 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#42) | 0.545 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 58.7% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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