Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | UNM -400 CSU +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -5.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -5.6 (-3.6) | 145.1 (-11.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -3.9 (-1.9) | 148.4 (-14.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -4.7 (-2.7) | 149.1 (-15.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -4.5 (-2.5) | 149.0 (-15.0) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | CSU 82 – 74 UNM |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNM 80 – 70 CSU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNM 87 – 65 CSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | UNM 76 – 68 CSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UNM 74 – 61 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#18) | 12.8 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#24) | 2.43 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#31) | 3.03 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#16) | 0.620 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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