Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | CSU +102 UNM -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +10 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -1.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -0.3 (-10.3) | 139.3 (+10.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -2.2 (-12.2) | 136.4 (+13.6) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -1.4 (-11.4) | 139.5 (+10.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -0.7 (-10.7) | 140.4 (+9.6) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | CSU 82 – 74 UNM |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNM 87 – 65 CSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | UNM 76 – 68 CSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UNM 74 – 61 CSU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | UNM 68 – 66 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-6 | 17-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#86) | 10.0 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#82) | 2.29 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#76) | 2.84 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#66) | 0.612 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 42.1% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.7% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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