Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -125 UNM +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +8 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -0.6 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -1.0 (-9.0) | 153.6 (-9.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -1.3 (-9.3) | 152.8 (-8.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -0.8 (-8.8) | 149.5 (-5.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -1.0 (-9.0) | 151.8 (-7.8) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | CSU 82 – 74 UNM |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNM 80 – 70 CSU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNM 87 – 65 CSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UNM 74 – 61 CSU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | UNM 68 – 66 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#106) | 8.2 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#107) | 1.46 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#105) | 2.24 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#104) | 0.565 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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