Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -380 CSU +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +22 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -8.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -7.3 (+14.7) | 146.9 (+5.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -8.0 (+14.0) | 146.9 (+5.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -8.3 (+13.7) | 147.3 (+4.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -7.5 (+14.5) | 146.4 (+5.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | CSU 82 – 74 UNM |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNM 80 – 70 CSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | UNM 76 – 68 CSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UNM 74 – 61 CSU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | UNM 68 – 66 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 16-4 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#44) | 7.7 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#35) | 1.33 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#21) | 1.65 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#20) | 0.549 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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