Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UNM -154 CSU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +13 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -2.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -1.8 (+11.2) | 146.9 (-11.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -2.3 (+10.7) | 143.6 (-8.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -2.0 (+11.0) | 146.6 (-11.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -2.5 (+10.5) | 144.7 (-9.7) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | CSU 82 – 74 UNM |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNM 80 – 70 CSU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNM 87 – 65 CSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | UNM 76 – 68 CSU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | UNM 68 – 66 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#21) | 12.1 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#29) | 2.25 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#30) | 2.84 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#22) | 0.606 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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