Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +34 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -9.1 (+24.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -7.9 (+26.1) | 141.0 (+7.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -7.4 (+26.6) | 142.0 (+6.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -7.6 (+26.4) | 142.6 (+5.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -7.5 (+26.5) | 141.9 (+6.1) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | SJU 92 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 7, 2026 | SJU 84 – 70 BTLR |
| Mar 13, 2025 | SJU 78 – 57 BTLR |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SJU 76 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 62 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 13-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#61) | 2.5 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#64) | 1.31 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#49) | 1.66 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#122) | 0.524 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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