Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | BTLR +164 SJU -198 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +14 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -0.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -1.5 (-15.5) | 156.7 (-2.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BTLR -1.4 (-15.4) | 158.8 (-4.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -2.8 (-16.8) | 152.4 (+1.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -2.1 (-16.1) | 152.9 (+1.1) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | SJU 92 – 70 BTLR |
| Mar 13, 2025 | SJU 78 – 57 BTLR |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SJU 76 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 62 BTLR |
| Feb 29, 2024 | SJU 82 – 59 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 18-2 |
| Home | 10-7 | 18-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#43) | 16.3 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#62) | 1.58 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#64) | 2.47 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#76) | 0.590 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 38.9% | 39.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 34.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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