Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -800 BTLR +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +21 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -9.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -9.3 (+11.7) | 147.8 (-12.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -8.3 (+12.7) | 147.5 (-12.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -10.0 (+11.0) | 146.6 (-11.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -9.8 (+11.2) | 147.6 (-12.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | SJU 92 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 7, 2026 | SJU 84 – 70 BTLR |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SJU 76 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 62 BTLR |
| Feb 29, 2024 | SJU 82 – 59 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 6-14 |
| Home | 19-0 | 9-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 17.7 (#17) | 7.9 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#11) | 0.59 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.55 (#7) | 1.14 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#9) | 0.510 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 11.4% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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