Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | BTLR +220 SJU -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +6 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -6.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -3.3 (-2.7) | 150.0 (-4.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -4.3 (-1.7) | 150.7 (-4.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -4.2 (-1.8) | 148.9 (-2.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -3.3 (-2.7) | 148.9 (-2.9) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | SJU 92 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 7, 2026 | SJU 84 – 70 BTLR |
| Mar 13, 2025 | SJU 78 – 57 BTLR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 62 BTLR |
| Feb 29, 2024 | SJU 82 – 59 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 18-2 |
| Home | 9-8 | 19-0 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#70) | 18.0 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#113) | 2.91 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#88) | 4.29 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#135) | 0.624 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.1% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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